چکیده:
قتل، هولناکترین جرم خشن، یک مسئلۀ مهم اجتماعی است که میتواند تحتتأثیر شاخصهای کلاناقتصادی باشد؛ اما در ایران به این موضوع کمتر توجه شده است. در این پژوهش کوشش شده است رابطه شاخصهای اقتصادی مانند سرانۀ تولید ناخالصداخلی، مشارکت زنان در نیروی کار، بیکاری، تورم و ضریب نفوذ اینترنت با قتل بررسی شود. این پژوهش از نوع طولی است که بهروش سریهای زمانی انجامشده و طی آن رابطۀ شاخصهای اقتصادی و قتل در دوره 1397-1374 تحلیل شده است. برای بررسی رابطۀ کوتاهمدت و بلندمدت متغیرهای تحقیق، از الگوی خودرگرسیونی با وقفههای توزیعی در نرمافزار مایکروفیت استفاده شده است. براساس یافتههای تحقیق، با بهبود شاخصهای اقتصادی مانند تولید ناخالصداخلی و ضریب نفوذ اینترنت، از میزان قتل کاسته شده است؛ اما با بهبود مشارکت زنان در نیروی کار میزان قتل افزایش پیدا کرده است. با استناد به یافتههای تحقیق، نتیجهگیری میشود که قتلها در ایران تحتتأثیر شاخصهای اقتصادیِکلان است؛ البته باید به این نکته نیز توجه داشت که اقتصاد ایران یک اقتصاد دولتیِ وابسته به نفت و متأثر از تحریمهای بینالمللی است که بخشی از نوسانهای شاخصهای اقتصادی، تحتتأثیر تشدید یا تضعیفشدن آنهاست که در تحلیلهای نهایی باید به آن توجه شود.
IntroductionMore than 464,000 people are killed each year worldwide. Homicide as a violent crime occurs in all countries, regardless of political, religious, or economic background. It is considered as a major public health issue. In explaining homicide, some studies have examined this phenomenon at the macro level and tried to explain the relationship between economic indicators and homicide. As a result, 4 approaches have been developed. The first view is that by improving economic indicators, homicide rates decrease. The mechanism of this negative relationship involves the effect of economic development on reducing or eliminating deprivation. Economic deprivation causes anger, frustration, and aggression. By lowering the tolerance threshold, it paves the way for murder in the society. The second view is that by improving economic indicators, homicide rates increase. The mechanism of this positive relationship is that the improvement of economic indicators would lead to urbanization, which weakens social cohesion and control by increasing heterogeneity and inequality and thus, the homicide rate rises in the society. The third view is that by declining economic indicators, homicide rates increase. The mechanism of this positive relationship originates from Durkheim's idea, which states that in the context of economic recession, one's status is impaired and individuals have difficulty in matching their expectations and abilities. The last view is that by declining economic recession, homicide rates decrease. The mechanism of this negative relationship originates from Henry and Short's idea of how people interpret this situation. If they attribute their misery and deprivation to macroeconomics and its performance, the homicide rate will decrease, but if they attribute their feelings to themselves, the homicide rate will raise. Although Iran is considered as one of the low-rate countries in terms of homicide, the homicide rate has been fluctuated during the past three decades. Since there is no longitudinal study of the relationship between economic indicators and homicide in Iran, the key question of the present study was whether there was a relationship between economic indicators and homicide rates in Iran or not. Materials and MethodsThis time-series study examined the relationship between economic indicators, including GDP per capita, inflation, unemployment, women's participation in labor force, and the internet penetration, and homicide rate during 1995-2018. The research data were collected from the Iranian Statistical Center, the Central Bank of Iran, the Iranian police, and the World Bank. To investigate the short-run and long-run relationship between the variables, Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) method was applied in Microfit 5 software. Discussion of Results & ConclusionsBased on the results, the long-run relationship of economic indices and homicide rate showed that GDP per capita and the internet penetration negatively affected homicide and women's participation in labor force had a positive impact on it. Moreover, there was no significant relationship of unemployment and inflation with homicide. The negative relationship between GDP per capita, the internet penetration, and homicide obviously confirmed the first theoretical approach (the more improving the economic indicators were, the less homicide rates appeared). On the other hand, the positive relationship between women's participation in labor force and homicide clearly affirmed the second theoretical perspective (the more improving the economic indicators were, the more homicide rates occurred). In the end, the following two key limitations had to be considered: 1) Iran's economy is mainly a state economy that is dependent on oil export and affected by foreign sanctions. Thus, a part of fluctuations in the economic indicators during the period of 1995-2018 was influenced by intensifying or improving the above mentioned factors, which could not be controllable by the author ; 2) There were other variables for measuring economic indicators, to which the author did not have access. It is clear that they must be also tested in order to obtain a more obvious perspective on the relationship between economic indices and homicide rates.